Hard Data and Soft Data about the economy are telling different stories, but what they have in common is neither is telling a recessionary tale.
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In 2022, Powell gave the public eight minutes of gut-wrenching hawkish rhetoric. In 2024, he reversed course and provided a dramatic dovish transition to a new era. However, there’s a lot of wood to chop to get back to accommodative.
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Market reactions, measured by the daily moves in the S&P500 on release dates, looks like a shadow of Fed remarks, tracking the shift in Fed rhetoric towards concern about growth versus inflation.
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The Fed grapples with one of Focus Point’s most important tenets - how to measure momentum
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Like proverbial good and evil angels sitting on opposite shoulders of Powell, the one whispering “higher for longer”, became quieter last week, while the ones whispering “cut now” began to shout. The inherent negative message made markets nervous.
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Momentum from large dispersion days
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What a Title Fight Would Look Like Between AI Leaders and Economic Data
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Review of S&P500 relationship to CPI
Read MoreA look at historical gap between changes in M2, Fed Funds Rate and Sticky Inflation start to impact CPI
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